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This study transcends the limitations of traditional research paradigms that dichotomize natural and social elements, offering an innovative analysis of the impact of the integrated rice and crab farming model on landscape ecological risks (LER). By employing the Geodetestor model based on optimal parameters, it elucidates the spatial response mechanisms between the development of agricultural cultural heritage sites and LER patterns. The geographical detector analysis based on typical cases in Panjin City reveals that, Panjin is characterized by a typical temperate semi-humid monsoon climate, which exhibits the defining features of the east Asian monsoon region: Four distinct seasons, an annual average temperature of approximately 9.0 °C, and an annual precipitation of around 600–700 mm, predominantly occurring during the summer months. In contrast to plain cities characterized by linear-response-driven patterns and mountainous cities constrained by topography, Panjin—As a coastal city—Exhibits evolutionary characteristics of LER shaped by land-sea interactive natural-social compound drivers. The driving factors demonstrate significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The stability of the natural base (e.g., delta sedimentation dynamics and intertidal zone evolution) interacts with anthropogenic disturbances from integrated rice and crab farming model expansion of agricultural and fishery industries, and coastal development, forming a dynamic interplay. This dual mechanism results in a distinct spatial differentiation pattern of LER, which gradually decreases from the coastal zone toward inland areas. This study represents the first systematic delineation of phased LER dynamics. During the initial phase (1990–2010), the dominant risk was characterized by farmland expansion driven by paddy field transformation. In the intermediate phase (2010−2020), the primary risk shifted to wetland fragmentation induced by aquaculture development. Most recently (2020−2023), risk mitigation emerged as a result of regulatory interventions under ecological protection policies. The research confirms that LER constitute a nonlinear mapping of surface cover heterogeneity and human activity intensity within spatial topological networks. This finding provides an extendable analytical framework for investigating land-sea coupled ecological processes and urban resilience, offering universal reference significance for ecological security studies in coastal cities worldwide • Pioneered a spatially explicit LER framework for coastal cities integrating natural-social compound drivers. • Combined Geodetector and PLUS models to reveal nonlinear interactions and scenario-based LER evolution. • Revealed risk shifts from farmland expansion to wetland loss, balancing food security and eco-resilience.
Yibing et al. (Thu,) studied this question.