Persistence and disadoption of sustainable agricultural practices in the Mississippi Delta region

Abstract The working lands programs in the United States are specifically tailored to support farmers in initiating or enhancing conservation practices. The expectation is that farmers receiving financial assistance will continue implementing these practices even after their initial contracts end, thereby increasing the programs’ cost‐effectiveness and promoting natural resources conservation. However, little is known about the likelihood of persistence and disadoption of conservation practices once the initial cost‐share contracts expire. Using the first‐order Markov chain framework on state‐level conservation practices acreage data from the Mississippi Delta region (2005–2022), this study provides quantitative estimates of changing (dis)adoption patterns of four conservation practices: cover crops (CCs), conservation tillage (CT), nutrient and irrigation management (NIM), and conservation crop rotation (CCR). The findings reveal a higher probability of persistence of NIM practices. In contrast, acres devoted to CCs and CT tend to transition into other alternative practices, indicating a greater likelihood of disadoption. Importantly, the likelihood of acres that initially adopt conservation practices with funding shifting to a condition of no conservation activity is minimal. The transition probability estimates facilitate the prediction of future adoption rates of conservation practices and aid funding agencies in prioritizing their conservation efforts.