Size Matters: Strength of Force  in Peace Building Missions

Previous theoretical work on peace building describes a 'footprint dilemma' regarding the appropriate size of force. In the preliminary stages of peace building, third party forces that tread with a heavy footprint can deter violence, but risk inciting backlash. A smaller force with a lighter footprint may receive less resistance but lack the strength needed to achieve goals. This project proposes that a larger force is more likely to achieve a lasting peace and will facilitate operations in other areas, such as electoral and economic reforms. A logistic regression of 1,077 peace spells following civil wars establishes a relationship between the size of peacekeeping forces as a percentage of population and the likelihood of peace failure. These results indicate that the risk of conflict drops dramatically once peacekeepers represent 1.5 percent of the state population.