Identification of high caries risk children using prevalence of filled surfaces as predictor variable for incidence

The purpose of the present study was to determine the validity of prevalence of filled surfaces at 9 years of age as a screening criterion for prediction of future caries incidence. Retrospective data were available for 114 children who had participated in an incremental dental care program from 7 to 16 years of age. There was a significant positive correlation between prevalence of filled surfaces (FS) at age 9 and increment of surfaces filled during the subsequent 7 years. Thus only 13% of the variation in increment of surfaces filled was explained by the variation in prevalence of FS. Subjects who had eight or more filled surfaces at 9 years of age were classed as the Expected H-group (22 subjects), while the Real H-group consisted of the 22 subjects who experienced the highest increment of surfaces filled between the ages of 9 and 16. Sensitivity and diagnostic power were both 45%, specificity 87%. While sensitivity decreased with increasing FS score at age 9, specificity and diagnostic power increased. A detailed analysis of the increment of surfaces filled each year from age 11 to 16 revealed that a considerable number of subjects not included in the H-groups also received many fillings.