Has the global energy transition been effective? Evidence from oil consumption

Reducing dependence on oil lies at the core of the global energy transition. Amid great power competition and geopolitical tensions, the ambition to advance the energy transition is encountering unprecedented challenges. However, the effectiveness of global energy transition efforts in reducing oil consumption remains unclear. Here, we evaluated the progress from two perspectives: spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors. We found that the energy transition indeed had positive effect on reducing global oil consumption. Specifically, Europe and the United States (US) experienced structural declines in oil consumption, resulting in a shift in oil demand toward developing regions. Moreover, the transition facilitated decoupling from economic development and population growth, promoted structural adjustments in the energy mix, and improved energy efficiency, although regional differences still exist. Finally, this study offers recommendations to support more effective, targeted policy strategies.