Intended and Reported Political Participation

While it is often argued that political participation can be measured by both ex ante (intention) and ex post (report) methods ( Castillo, Miranda, Bonhomme, Cox, & Bascopé, 2014 ; Ekström & Östman, 2013 ; Hooghe & Wilkenfeld, 2008 ; Persson, 2014 ), some authors claim that intention is a poor predictor of actual participation ( Brady, 1999 ; Furnham & Gunter, 1989 ; Norris, 2004 ) and have even found evidence that the link between intention and behavior is quite weak ( LaPiere, 1934 ). However, to our knowledge, no studies have yet explored how these two measurements of political participation are linked: How strongly are intended and reported political participation correlated, and do the same factors influence the two measures? Although some authors have explored the relationship between intention to vote, reported vote, and validated vote ( Achen & Blais, 2016 ; Granberg & Holmberg, 1991 ), such research is lacking for other political participation activities. For example, voting studies generally find that there is a strong correlation between intention to vote and reported turnout. However, the question remains if the pattern is the same with regard to overall political participation. Furthermore, these studies suggest that the same variables influence intended and reported turnout, but not with the same magnitude. Unfortunately, no such information seems to be available yet for other forms of political participation.