What question did this study set out to answer?

Assess the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue incidence over a 24-year period and evaluate the influence of local climatic factors on disease transmission and geographic expansion.

May 17, 2025Acta TropicaOpen Access

Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic effects on dengue in Amazonas, Peru during 2000–2023

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Authors

FBFátima Burgos MSMilagros Saavedra-SamillánNational University Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza PBPershing Bustamante-ChaucaDirección Regional de Salud del Callao

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Implication

Spatiotemporal analysis reveals rising minimum temperatures drive dengue expansion into cooler high-risk clusters, highlighting the need for climate-informed vector surveillance.

Key Points

Assess the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue incidence over a 24-year period and evaluate the influence of local climatic factors on disease transmission and geographic expansion.
Aggregated monthly dengue incidence data from 2000 to 2023 across Amazonas, Peru into four consecutive six-year intervals.
Applied space-time scan statistics to detect high- and low-risk geographic disease clusters.
Evaluated relationships between incidence and NASA-POWER climatic variables using Spearman correlations with distributed lags of zero to two months stratified by season.
Space-time scan statistics detected major high-risk clusters in Bagua and Utcubamba during 2008–2011 (LLR = 287.88, RR = 3.79) and a subsequent resurgence creating a Bagua mega-cluster (LLR = 1112.28, RR = 3.20).
Dengue expanded into historically non-endemic, cooler districts such as Balsas, where disease incidence significantly correlated with minimum temperature at a two-month lag during the wet season (rho = 0.23, P = 0.03).

Cite This Study

Burgos et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a703256ce524a4339c3f475 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107659

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Implication

Spatiotemporal analysis reveals rising minimum temperatures drive dengue expansion into cooler high-risk clusters, highlighting the need for climate-informed vector surveillance.

Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic effects on dengue in Amazonas, Peru during 2000–2023

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic effects on dengue in Amazonas, Peru during 2000–2023

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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