Does Brazil form an economic dependency relationship with China? A system dynamics perspective

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This paper investigates whether Brazil has developed economic dependency on China through system dynamics modelling. Based on dependency theory and trade-investment data from 2000 to 2024, we constructed a dynamic model to analyse China-Brazil relations. Our findings indicate Brazil exhibits dependency characteristics across multiple dimensions: trade concentration (28.5% by 2024), foreign direct investment dependence (15.2% of total FDI), and commodity export specialisation (73% primary goods). The system dynamics model identifies three reinforcing feedback loops: trade dependency amplification, investment-infrastructure nexus, and commodity specialisation lock-in. Scenario analysis reveals that under current trends, Brazil’s dependency index will reach 0.75 by 2050, while comprehensive industrial upgrading policies could reduce this to 0.35. This study contributes to the literature by applying dependency theory to South-South economic relations and provides evidence-based policy insights for emerging economies engaging with rising powers. Results suggest that while China-Brazil cooperation yields economic benefits, Brazil faces structural dependency risks that may constrain its development autonomy.