Regional climate modeling over China with COSMO‐CLM: Performance assessment and climate projections

This study presents the results of high‐resolution (0.125°) climate simulations over a Chinese area performed with an optimized configuration of the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM, driven by ERA‐Interim Reanalysis over the period 1979–2011 and by the output of the global model CMCC‐CM (resolution 0.75°) over the period 1979–2100. The main aim of this work was to analyze the capabilities of COSMO‐CLM to describe the climate of China in the recent past; validation revealed a good improvement in reproducing the precipitation and a reasonable improvement in 2 m temperature representation compared to results reported elsewhere. Climate projections, under the new IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, show a significant warming expected in China over the 21st century, while precipitation changes are expected only on a regional scale: increases in precipitation are projected for both scenarios in the northern part of the domain, while the southern area will be affected by a reduction in winter.