Avoiding Ecological Surprise: Lessons From Long-Standing Communities

Increasingly ecologists have recognized the importance of sudden and unexpected changes in the natural environment—often called “surprises.” Organizational scholars have not developed a theory of how to avoid ecological surprise. This article suggests one way to develop such a theory. Using ecology, systems analysis, and a historical comparison of four communities, the article concludes that organizing and managing natural resources in part as community property can play a central role in avoiding surprises.