In the context of the increasingly aging rural population in China, this study investigates the implications of this demographic shift on the nation's agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). Utilizing panel data from 30 provinces spanning 2005 to 2019, the AGTFP was quantified employing the slacks-based measure (SBM)-global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) model. The investigation employed a dynamic panel model, a mediation effect model, and a threshold effect model to elucidate the relationship between rural population aging and AGTFP. Additionally, the potential influence of labor transfer thresholds on this relationship was examined. It was found that: (a) AGTFP in China has exhibited a fluctuating yet ascending trajectory, with an average annual growth rate of 1.55%. The advancement of agricultural green technology has been identified as the primary driver of this growth. (b) The aging rural population significantly and positively influences AGTFP, with notable regional disparities. (c) The positive impact of rural aging on AGTFP has been facilitated through human capital accumulation, land transfer, and agricultural mechanization. (d) This beneficial effect of rural aging on AGTFP is moderated by a single threshold of labor transfer. These findings underscore the complex interplay between demographic trends and agricultural productivity, highlighting the necessity for tailored policies that accommodate the unique characteristics of rural aging in China.
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Gao et al. (2023) studied this question.
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