Ensembles‐based predictions of climate changes and their impacts

Predictions of natural climate variability and the human impact on climate are inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in the initial conditions of forecasts, the representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can be made only through ensemble integrations of Earth system models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. The ENSEMBLES project, funded through a 5‐year contract with the European Commission, aims to provide probabilistic estimates of climatic risk through ensemble integrations of Earth system models in which the uncertainties noted here are explicitly incorporated.