Asymmetric Effects of Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Human Capital on Economic Growth in South Asia

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This study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to explore the relationship between trade openness and output growth in South Asia from 1980 to 2019. Findings reveal significant short- and long-term effects, with asymmetric dynamics. In linear ARDL models, Pakistan and India show strong positive correlations, while Bangladesh shows a negative one. Non-linear modeling reduces these effects, but Nepal still benefits. Sri Lanka’s linear model indicates a non-significant negative correlation, while the non-linear model reveals a positive relationship. These results highlight the complex dynamics between trade openness and economic growth in South Asia.