We use the earthquake history of the last 500 years to help evaluate the tectonic and hazard contexts of the 1999 earthquakes at Izmit and Düzce in western Turkey. The 20th century has been unusually active, but over the 500 year period the seismic moment release can account for the known right-lateral shear velocity across the Marmara region observed by GPS. Two areas of known late Quaternary faulting stand out as unusually quiet over this period: the northwest shore of the Sea of Marmara and the southern branch of the North Anatolian fault system between Bursa and Mudurnu.
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Ambraseys et al. (2000) studied this question.
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