A Probabilistic Prediction Scheme for Wake Vortex Evolution in a Convective Boundary Layer

A simple probabilistic prediction scheme for wake vortex behaviour in a convective boundary layer is proposed. Large eddy simulations (LES) of wake vortices (WVs) in an evolving convective boundary layer serve as a test bed to investigate the performance of an engineering WV model which is forced by virtual measurement systems placed in the LES domain. The basic principles of the WV model are taken from literature. Considered are a meteorological tower and a profiler, from which the input data for the WV model are computed. The stochastic nature of turbulence requires both time and space averaging of wind and temperature data which in consequence leads to statistical WV forecasts. It is shown that both virtual measurement systems yield conservative predictions of WV trajectories. The predicted circulation is within the range analyzed from LES data. Operational aspects of these simple approaches are discussed.