A Test for a Shifting Slope Coefficient in a Linear Model

A locally most powerful test is developed for the hypothesis that a slope coefficient in a linear time series model is stable, against the alternative that the slope shifts exactly once somewhere in the series. Analysis of the procedure using artificial data indicates good power characteristics even when the ratio of the shift size to the error variance is moderate—especially if the shift does not occur very near either end of the series. Power also depends on the pattern of the independent variables and on whether the error variance is known or must be estimated using the residuals about the regression line.