Holistic analysis of the effect of climate change on thermal installations in buildings: climate predictions, thermoeconomic implications, retrofitting with renewable technology and adaptive control optimization

The European Union, where buildings are responsible for about 36% of the greenhouse gas emissions, is taking steps to reduce them until reach net zero emissions by 2050. Heat pump technology is one of the most promising technologies to decarbonize the building sector, but its performance depends on the environment that is affected by climate change. This paper analyzes a thermal installation that supplies DHW with a geothermal heat pump and a boiler to a residential building in a scenario affected by climate change considering four approaches, which address the forecasting, thermoeconomic cost quantification, retrofitting and control optimization. Firstly, the worst scenario for the comparative analysis is modelled, where the annual average temperature is expected to increase by 4°C in 2100. Second, an approach based on exergy diagnosis underlines a decrease in DHW product quality in -399 kWh/y, highlighting the need to include exergy indicators in further certification and analysis works, and an increase in the COP that generates a saving of 269 €/y and a decrease of 483 kgCO 2 /y. Third, an aerothermal heat pump substitutes the GSHP in the installation which reduces the 2.5% of electricity and 6.4% of natural gas consumption. Finally, the set-points of the control are optimized and it is found that warmer conditions reduce consumption and emissions, highlighting the air source heat pump as a key solution in the current context. The methodology applied can be easily replicated and extrapolated to other facilities, providing diagnoses and design decisions for retrofit or control for future projections. • Holistic analysis with forecasting, thermoeconomics, retrofitting, optimization • A scenario affected by the climate change is fitted accurately to the location • Exergy analysis for detecting energy quality decrease in DHW • Air source heat pump could be a key solution in the current climate context • Holistic analysis to replicate and extrapolate to other installations