What factors of early‐stage innovative projects are likely to drive projects’ success? A longitudinal analysis of Korean entrepreneurial firms

Previous studies have identified the factors affecting successful technology commercialization as outcomes of R&D projects. However, most of them have used cross‐sectional data, whereas there is a dearth of literature using longitudinal data analysis. Longitudinal analysis is essential for investigating the characteristics of early‐stage innovative projects due to the inherent time lag between project evaluation and commercialization. Therefore, this study examines the early‐stage project characteristics that can be used as meaningful evaluation criteria for predicting success, particularly in technology commercialization. We collected data on the ex‐ante evaluation results and ex‐post commercialization results of R&D projects pursued by entrepreneurial firms. We then conducted a logistic regression analysis and identified three market‐related factors as significant in driving technology commercialization success in the early stages of technology development: market potential, commercialization plan, and market condition.