Crop yields are not greater outside centers of origin

Scientists have long posited that crops achieve higher yields outside their centers of origin by escaping pests and pathogens. However, this assumption has remained untested for many crops. If moving crops truly leads to higher yields and reduced need for agricultural input, understanding this effect would be crucial for meeting global food demand while minimizing intensive input. In this study, we harmonized global databases on crop yield, yield gaps, and pesticide use, applying machine learning to test this hypothesis across 12 key crops. We found no consistent evidence that crop yields are higher outside centers of origin. Yield gaps—the difference between actual and climatic potential yield—were not smaller outside origin centers, and closing these gaps would require similar amounts of pesticides regardless of distance from origin. Together, these results suggest that the assumption that yields will consistently increase outside centers of origin should be reconsidered.