Forecasting solar module waste in the United Kingdom

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Photovoltaics play a key role in the United Kingdom (UK) meeting its net-zero targets. In this analysis, we draw on governmental datasets and projections, technical data from across the photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing industry and technoeconomic research to determine the UK's waste processing needs in the event it meets its deployment targets. Our estimates suggest that the ∼18 GW of current UK PV capacity corresponds to approximately 70m installed modules. To meet the 2050 target of 90 GW peak , there needs to be sustained average annual installation of ∼5–10m individual PV modules over the coming decades, the majority of which are likely to be silicon-based technologies. Many current PV modules are nearing the end of their lifespan or are on sites selected for “repowering”, and, based on our estimates, cumulative end-of-life UK PV module numbers will exceed 100m (∼2m tonnes) by 2050. The tonnage of UK solar waste is expected to exceed the current pan-European solar waste recycling capacity by 2035, demonstrating the need for further investment in recycling infrastructure and capacity. Domestic processing of this waste would enable retention of contained high-value or critical materials within UK supply chains, but this requires technical infrastructure to be in place. • Mass-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar cell deployment required for net zero in the UK. • Early generations of the c. 70m UK modules installed are reaching end-of-life. • Cumulative end-of-life UK PV modules will likely exceed 100m by 2050. • UK solar waste expected to exceed current pan-European recycling capacity by 2035. • Recycling infrastructure investment needed to retain critical materials in the UK.