Comparative assessment of photovoltaic waste generation across European countries

During the 2000s, photovoltaic (PV) solar energy began a period of sustained development in many European countries. The lifespan of PV panels, which is 25-35 years, will present a significant challenge for waste management in all these countries in the coming years. This study examines photovoltaic deployment in the European countries with the highest solar PV capacity—Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands—and introduces a waste generation model to estimate photovoltaic waste streams up to 2035. This model is based on a Weibull distribution, and its specific parameters are discussed in order to improve the current estimations. These estimations are too outdated to include the latest PV installations, and they were developed without considering the significant increase in waste generation that began in 2018. The proposed model showed good agreement with the observed data for all analysed countries, with the exception of Spain, where the later development of photovoltaic technologies resulted in an outlying behaviour. The analysis considers the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By 2035, it is estimated that 230,000 tonnes of PV waste will be generated in Germany, 100,000 in Italy, 44,000 in Spain, 30,000 in France, and lastly 5000 tonnes in the Netherlands. These findings highlight the need to boost current collection rates and drive the development of recycling techniques to improve the circularity of the sector. This would foster the recovery of significant quantities of glass, Ag, Al, Cu, and Si, as well as contribute to the supply needs of the European Union.