An heuristic model for sea level rise due to the melting of small glaciers

Ice melt from glaciers and small ice caps (GSICs) is an important component of past and future sea level rise. Projections made to date of future GSIC‐derived sea level rise have used a simple model that has conceptual weaknesses, calibrated using data that have since been revised. Here we devise a more satisfactory model that accounts for regional variations in the altitudinal ranges of the world's glaciers, calibrate it using recent data, and consider the implications for future sea level rise. Because of compensating factors, the new projections are similar to the earlier ones, but their methodological basis is far more sound. Wide uncertainties still remain.