Using metabolism related factors constructing a predictive model for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Xinjiang Kazakh population

Objective To construct and confirm a predictive model for the risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its factors in Xinjiang Kazakh population. Methods A total of 2 286 Kazakh individuals were followed for 5 years from 2010 to 2012 as baseline survey. They were recruited in Xinyuan county, Yili city, Xinjiang. CVD cases were identified via medical records of the local hospitals in 2013, 2016 and 2017, respectively. Factor analysis was performed on 706 MS patients at baseline, and main factors, age, and sex were extracted from 18 medical examination indexs to construct a predictive model of CVD risk. After excluding the subjects with CVD at baseline and incomplete data, 2007 were used as internal validation, and 219 Kazakhs in Halabra Township were used as external validation. Logistic regression discriminations were used for internal validation and external validation, as well as to calculate the probability of CVD for each participant and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The prevalence of MS in Kazakh was 30.88%. Seven main factors were extracted from the Kazakh MS population, namely obesity factor, blood lipid and blood glucose factor, liver function factor, blood lipid factor, renal metabolic factor, blood pressure factor, and liver enzyme factor. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting CVD in the internal validation was 0.773 (95%CI 0.754-0.792). In the external validation, the AUC for predicting CVD was 0.858 (95%CI 0.805-0.901). Conclusions The CVD risk prediction model constructed by 7 main factors extracted from Kazakh MS patients has high validation efficiency and can be used for risk assessment of CVD in Xinjiang Kazakh population.