Optimal management of green certificates in the Swedish–Norwegian market

We propose and investigate a valuation model for the income of selling tradeable green certificates (TGCs) in the Swedish–Norwegian market, formulated as a singular stochastic control problem. Our model takes into account the production rate of renewable energy from a “typical” plant, the price of TGCs and the cumulative amount of certificates sold. We assume that the production rate has a dynamics given by an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, and the logarithmic TGC price has a dynamics given by a Lévy process. For this class of dynamics, we find optimal decision rules for the state variables and a closed-form solution to the control problem. A case study of ICAP prices and wind production data from Denmark backs up our model choice and shows the relevance of this pricing approach. final version of this research has been published in Journal of Energy Markets.