Predicting voluntary freshman year persistence/withdrawal behavior in a residential university: A path analytic validation of Tinto's model.

Path analysis was employed to test the validity of Tinto's (1975) explanatory, theoretical model of student persistence/withdrawal behavior on a sample of 763 residential university freshmen. A reduced path model yielded results generally consistent with the model's expectations. When the sample was disaggregated by sex, however, notable differences in the path model were indicated. For women, social integration had a somewhat stronger direct effect on voluntary freshman year persistence/withdrawal decisions than academic integration, whereas the reverse was true for males. Additional analysis suggested significant compensatory interaction between social and academic integration and between institutional and goal commitment. In terms of the magnitude of its positive influence on persistence, academic integration was most important for students with low levels of social integration, and vice versa. A similar relationship existed for the Goal Commitment X Institutional Commitment interaction. Student withdrawal from postsecondary