A gravity model to account for vertical linkages between markets with an application to the cattle/beef sector

A gravity model is developed to explain bilateral trade flows in primary and processed commodities within the same agri-food supply chain. It accounts for vertical production linkages, trade and domestic policies, and supply rigidities at the farm level. Our application focuses on cattle/beef trade flows between 42 countries. The estimated parameters of the model are used to simulate trade flows. We found large differences in the impacts of the full and partial liberalization scenarios. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to generate confidence intervals around predicted trade liberalization outcomes.