Improved Modeling of Maintenance for Future Vertical Lift

The Future Vertical Lift (FVL) Cross Functional Team (CFT) required analysis on the sustainment performance of FVL aircraft operating in Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). A study from last year forecasted the sustainment performance of FVL’s Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) based upon historical performance of the enduring AH-64 Apache infused with emerging technologies. This study improved last year’s model by refining key assumptions. First, a Forward Maintenance Team in MDO conducted limited maintenance that was constrained by an austere environment. Second, the assumption of constant component failure rates was updated with increasing hazard rates to reflect fatigue in mechanical systems like the transmission and rotors. Third, technological risk was captured by accounting for the uncertainty associated with infused technologies based on the Technology Readiness Level. Finally, the historical failure rates of the enduring fleet of AH-64, UH-60, and CH-47 aircraft guided reliability forecasts for FARA increments over its life cycle.