Predictive modeling study demonstrates accurate vibration forecasting in industrial roller bearings, indicating that Holt–Winters models prevent unexpected shutdowns through timely replacement.
Roller mills are commonly used in the production of mining derivatives, since one of their purposes is to reduce raw materials to very small sizes and to combine them. This research evaluates the mechanical condition of a mill containing four rollers, focusing on the largest cylindrical roller bearings as the main component that causes equipment failure. The objective of this work is to make a prognosis of when the overall vibrations would reach the maximum level allowed (2.5 IPS pk), thus enabling planned replacements, and achieving the maximum possible useful life in operation, without incurring unscheduled corrective maintenance and unexpected plant shutdown. Wireless sensors were used to capture vibration data and the ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and Holt–Winters methods were applied to forecast vibration behavior in the short term. Finally, the results demonstrate that the Holt–Winters model outperforms the ARIMA model in precision, allowing a 3-month prognosis without exceeding the established vibration limit.
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Primera et al. (2024) studied this question.
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