The Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Model provides a decision-analysis framework to extrapolate clinical trial efficacy data into real-world effectiveness and cost-effectiveness estimates.
May inform hypothetical CVD prevention modeling; extends decision frameworks but leaves open prospective validation before practice change.
BACKGROUND: Clinical trials generally provide strong evidence of the efficacy of cardiovascular preventive strategies, but poor evidence of their 'real-life' utility, in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN AND METHODS: The Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Model is presented, which represents a means of extrapolating the results of clinical trials to a broader, more relevant context. The model is configured as a decision-analysis tree, and underpinned by life-course analysis and Markov processes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are undertaken by Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: The results of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses of a hypothetical preventive intervention are presented to demonstrate the outputs of the model. The potential impact and efficiency of the intervention are made obvious. CONCLUSIONS: The Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Model offers a means to translate the results of trials of cardiovascular preventive interventions, in order to inform clinical and public health practice, as well as health policy.
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Liew et al. (2006) studied this question.
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