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April 21, 2022Pediatric Critical Care MedicineOpen Access

Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Prediction of Potential Transfer to the PICU

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Why the study?

Unrecognized clinical deterioration during pediatric hospitalization is linked to high mortality and morbidity, motivating development of machine learning algorithms to identify ICU transfers within 12 hours.

Does a machine learning model improve prediction of direct ward to ICU transfer within 12 hours in pediatric inpatients compared to the Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score?

Population

Pediatric inpatients (age <18 yr) across 50,830 admissions at site 1 and 88,970 admissions at site 2

Comparison

Machine learning algorithms vs modified Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score

Design

Observational cohort study across two urban, tertiary-care, academic hospitals

Authors

AMAnoop MayampurathUniversity of Wisconsin–MadisonLSL. Nelson Sanchez‐PintoNorthwestern UniversityEHEmma HegermillerRED Consulting (Norway)

Discussion

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Implication

ML models may enable earlier detection of deterioration in hospitalized children; hypothesis-generating and requires prospective validation before clinical adoption.

Structured PICO

Does a machine learning model improve prediction of direct ward to ICU transfer within 12 hours in pediatric inpatients compared to the Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score?

P
Population
139,800 pediatric inpatient admissions (age <18 yr) across two urban, tertiary-care, academic hospitals (50,830 at site 1; 88,970 at site 2).
I
Intervention
Gradient boosted machine learning model using age, vital signs, and laboratory results
C
Comparator
Modified version of the Bedside Pediatric Early Warning Score (using only physiologic variables)
O
Outcome
Direct ward to ICU transfer within 12 hourshard clinical

A machine learning model using age, vital signs, and lab results accurately predicts ICU transfer in hospitalized children, outperforming standard early warning scores.

Cite This Study

Mayampurath et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a71018126a7f98052dd71f8https://doi.org/10.1097/pcc.0000000000002965
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