The Effects of the NATO-European Divergence on Turkey's Security Architecture

This article examines the effects of NATO-EU divergence on Turkey's security architecture from historical, structural, and contemporary perspectives. The tension between NATO's collective defense and the EU's strategic autonomy shapes Turkey's role and security policies. Turkey's defense industry rise, geopolitical position, risks (S-400 crisis, EU exclusion), and opportunities (Black Sea leadership, technological autonomy) are analyzed. In 2025, Trump's withdrawal of Ukraine support deepened the divide, increasing Turkey's importance to the EU, raising demands like visa liberalization and Customs Union revision, and highlighting Turkey's potential in a new world closer to the second group (EU, UK, China) while balancing ties with the first (US, Russia, India, Iran, Israel). Effective management could position Turkey as a global actor, contingent on internal stability, economy, and diplomacy.