Predicting the Risk of Psychological Distress among Lung Cancer Patients: Development and Validation of a Predictive Algorithm Based on Sociodemographic and Clinical Factors

Lung cancer patients reported the highest incidence of psychological distress. It is extremely important to identify which patients at high risk for psychological distress. The study aims to develop and validate a predictive algorithm to identify lung cancer patients at high risk for psychological distress. This cross-sectional study identified the risk factors of psychological distress in lung cancer patients. Data on sociodemographic and clinical variables were collected from September 2018 to August 2019. Structural equation model (SEM) was conducted to determine the associations between all factors and psychological distress, and then construct a predictive algorithm. Coincidence rate was also calculated to validate this predictive algorithm. Total 441 participants sent back validated questionnaires. After performing SEM analysis, educational level (β = 0.151, P = 0.004), residence (β = 0.146, P = 0.016), metastasis (β = 0.136, P = 0.023), pain degree (β = 0.133, P = 0.005), family history (β = −0.107, P = 0.021), and tumor, node, and metastasis stage (β = −0.236, P < 0.001) were independent predictors for psychological distress. The model built with these predictors showed an area under the curve of 0.693. A cutoff of 66 predicted clinically significant psychological distress with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 65.41%, 66.90%, 28.33%, and 89.67%, respectively. The coincidence rate between predictive algorithm and distress thermometer was 64.63%. A validated, easy-to-use predictive algorithm was developed in this study, which can be used to identify patients at high risk of psychological distress with moderate accuracy.