Pretransplant Predictors of Posttransplant Adherence and Clinical Outcome

INTRODUCTION: There is growing awareness, yet scant prospective evidence that pretransplant (TX) psychosocial factors may predict post-TX outcome. We examined which pre-TX psychosocial factors predict post-TX nonadherence with immunosuppression (NA) and clinical outcomes in heart, liver, and lung TX. METHODOLOGY: We prospectively followed 141 patients (28 heart, 61 liver, and 52 lung) from pre-TX until 1 year post-TX. Multivariable analyses determined which pre-TX factors (i.e., anxiety, depression, personality traits, social support, adherence with medication, and smoking status) predict poor post-TX outcome (i.e., NA, late acute rejection, graft loss, and resource utilization), controlling for medical predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: Pre-TX self-reported medication nonadherence (odds ratio [OR]=7.9), lower received social support (OR=0.9), a higher education (OR=2.7), and lower "conscientiousness" (OR=0.8) were independent predictors of post-TX NA. Not living in a stable relationship predicted graft loss (OR=4.9). Pre-TX medication NA was the only predictor for presence of late acute rejection (OR=4.4). No other pre-TX predictors for poor outcome could be found. CONCLUSION: This is the first prospective study demonstrating that selected pre-TX psychosocial factors predict post-TX NA and poor clinical outcome, implying that pre-TX screening should include this set of factors in addition to traditional medical criteria.