What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and validate an absolute risk prediction model tailored to premenopausal breast cancer using harmonized data from multiple international prospective cohorts.

May 1, 2025Breast Cancer ResearchOpen Access

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for premenopausal breast cancer in 19 cohorts

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Authors

KBKristen D. BrantleyHarvard University MJMichael E. JonesBrigham Young University RTRulla M. TamimiCornell University

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Implication

Pooled cohort study reveals modest discrimination for a premenopausal breast cancer risk model in 783,830 women, highlighting the need for novel risk predictors.

Key Points

To develop and validate an absolute risk prediction model tailored to premenopausal breast cancer using harmonized data from multiple international prospective cohorts.
Harmonized questionnaire data from 19 prospective cohorts within the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group (N = 783,830 women), splitting data into training (two-thirds) and validation (one-third) sets.
Selected candidate risk factors using Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by cohort, combining estimates across missing-covariate subsets via meta-analysis to predict 5-year absolute risk.
The final model retained age at menarche, parity, height, current and young adulthood BMI, family history of breast cancer, and personal history of benign breast disease, with 5-year predicted absolute risk spanning 0% to 5.7%.
Model discrimination yielded an AUC of 59.1% (95% CI, 58.1%–60.1%) in the validation set, showing near-identical performance to the existing iCARE-Lit model.
Calibration demonstrated an overall expected-to-observed (E/O) risk ratio of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.14–1.23), underestimating risk in the lowest decile (E/O = 0.59, 95% CI, 0.58–0.60) and overestimating risk in the highest decile (E/O = 1.48, 95% CI, 1.48–1.49).

Cite This Study

Brantley et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a71397435aa2c282ce288ee https://doi.org/10.1186/s13058-025-02031-8

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Implication

Pooled cohort study reveals modest discrimination for a premenopausal breast cancer risk model in 783,830 women, highlighting the need for novel risk predictors.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for premenopausal breast cancer in 19 cohorts

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for premenopausal breast cancer in 19 cohorts

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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