What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and evaluate non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment frameworks that integrate tidal phase uncertainty and sea level rise.

November 1, 2022Earth s FutureOpen Access

Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Compounding Tides and Sea Level Rise

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Authors

ISIgnacio SepúlvedaSan Diego State University PLPhilip L.‐F. LiuKorea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology MGMircea GrigoriuCornell University

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Implication

Simulation study demonstrates sea level rise and tides alter tsunami hazard curves in coastal regions, indicating a strong need to compound hydrodynamic factors in flood mitigation.

Key Points

To develop and evaluate non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment frameworks that integrate tidal phase uncertainty and sea level rise.
Formulated two computational frameworks: a Stochastic Reduced Order Model (SROM) to sample tidal phases and a collocation-based method coupling prescribed tidal phases with tide probability distributions.
Extended both approaches to non-stationary hazard assessments compounding tsunamis, tides, and sea level rise, evaluating them on scenarios from the Manila Subduction Zone affecting Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong.
The SROM approach achieved faster computation when resolving tides alone, whereas the collocation method demonstrated superior computational speed when compounding both tides and sea level rise.
Sea level rise over a 100-year exposure period exerted a greater impact than tides alone, systematically translating maximum tsunami elevation curves toward higher elevations while both factors widened distribution dispersion.

Cite This Study

Sepúlveda et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7141538031ec7bb1dcda61 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002965

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Implication

Simulation study demonstrates sea level rise and tides alter tsunami hazard curves in coastal regions, indicating a strong need to compound hydrodynamic factors in flood mitigation.

Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Compounding Tides and Sea Level Rise

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Non‐Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Compounding Tides and Sea Level Rise

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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