Simplified Warfarin Dose–response Pharmacodynamic Models

Warfarin is a frequently used oral anticoagulant for long-term prevention and treatment of thromboembolic events. Due to its narrow therapeutic range and large inter-individual dose-response variability, it is highly desirable to personalize warfarin dosing. However, the complexity of the conventional kinetic-pharmacodynamic (K-PD) models hampers the development of the personalized dose management. To avert this challenge, we propose simplified PD models for warfarin dose-response relationship, which is motivated by ideas from control theory. The simplified models were further applied to longitudinal data of 37 patients undergoing anticoagulation treatment using the standard two-stage approach and then compared with the conventional K-PD models. Data analysis shows that all models have a similar predictive ability, but the simplified models are most parsimonious.