A Test of Combinations of Models for Projecting the Population of Minor Civil Divisions

The problem treated here is projection of 567 municipal populations in New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) through 1985. The major objective is to include probable historicalbehavioral changes at a series of spatial levels while not accumulating additive errors from multiple assumptions.' The historical-behavioral approach emphasizes anticipation of changes likely to drastically alter observed trends in growth and in distribution of population. The impact of fluctuations in fertility rate on population forecasts is exemplary. During 1930s a stable and declining population was projected by a number of curve-fitting procedures.2 Writing in 1950, Dorn suggested that the men and women who bear children