Modeling a closed-loop vaccine supply chain with transshipments to minimize wastage and threats to the public: a system dynamics approach

Purpose This study aims to focus on building a conceptual closed-loop vaccine supply chain (CLVSC) to decrease vaccine wastage and counterfeit/fake vaccines. Design/methodology/approach Through a focused literature review, the framework for the CLVSC is described, and the system dynamics (SD) research methodology is used to build a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the proposed model. Findings In the battle against COVID-19, waste management systems have become overwhelmed, which has created negative environmental and extremely hazardous societal impacts. A key contributing factor is unused vaccine doses, shown as a source for counterfeit/fake vaccines. The findings identify a CLVSC design and transshipment operations to decrease vaccine wastage and the potential for vaccine theft. Research limitations/implications This study contributes to establishing a pandemic-specific VSC structure. The proposed model informs the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as potential future pandemics. Social implications A large part of the negative impact of counterfeit/fake vaccines is on human well-being, and this can be avoided with proper CLVSC. Originality/value This study develops a novel overarching SD CLD by integrating the epidemic model of disease transmission, VSC and closed-loop structure. This study enhances the policymakers’ understanding of the importance of vaccine waste collection, proper handling and threats to the public, which are born through illicit activities that rely on stolen vaccine doses.