Techno-social systems and readiness for energy transition: solar mini-grids in Tanzania

Renewable energy solutions offer a way of balancing social and economic development demands with climate change mitigation demands, but this cannot happen without the intentional linking of those objectives. This paper seeks to improve our understanding of the techno-social barriers – that is, where technologies and social institutions collide – to the expansion of modern renewable energy (RE) electrification projects, with a case study of solar mini-grids in Tanzania. It consolidates findings from extant literature on mini-grids in Tanzania and East Africa with partial findings from our study. Using a systems thinking paradigm, we identified two main techno-social barriers to mini-grid expansion: (1) resistance to change as a systemic symptom in cases of technological development; and (2) separating RE from economic development narratives, effectively rendering RE as only a second option. Furthermore, using technological change models, we identify a combination of demand-pull and path-dependence models that dominate RE diffusion in Tanzania, and together they instigate feedback loops that constrain readiness for the energy transition. Arguing that integrating RE into economic development objectives is needed and can be achieved by strategic policy interventions, this study suggests possible leverage points to overcome these barriers by intentionally re-linking RE and national development narratives.