Epidemiology and Projections of Childhood and Adolescent Disability in India: Findings from Census 2011

Background There is limited data on the magnitude of disability in children and adolescents in India. The objectives of this study were to compare the prevalence of disability among children and adolescents over a decade (2001–2011), estimate standardized prevalence across different geographical regions, examine its correlation with the State Health Index (SHI), and project decadal estimates for India up to 2051. Methods Datasets from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses covering the total population and disability data were obtained, filtered for individuals under 20 years of age, and analyzed to determine age- and sex-specific prevalence rates. Disability rates for the state were standardized based on the country’s population. Pearson’s correlation and linear regression were used to determine the association between disability and SHI of states. Projections were calculated using an exponential growth rate model. Results Disability rate among children and adolescents under 20 years was 1667 and 1595 per 100,000 population in 2001 and 2011, respectively. The magnitude of children and adolescent with disability increased by 1.69% over the decade. The highest increase in disability magnitude over the decade was observed among children below 5 years of age being 7.62%. The prevalence was higher among boys and urban residents. Disability prevalence varied among states and was negatively associated with SHI. The projected estimates from this study suggested a rise in children with disability from 7.86 million in 2011 to 8.13 million in 2031, furthermore rising to 8.41 million in 2051. Conclusion The significant magnitude of disability among young children highlights the need for strategies addressing disability in child health policies. The regional disparities in disability rates highlight the need for tailored regional interventions. Moreover, the projected rise in disability prevalence, particularly among children below 5 years of age, signifies the importance of prevention, screening, diagnosis, and early intervention.