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August 2, 2026Open Access

MODEL ADOPTION #556: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 32.3% to 33.9% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin

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Key Points

The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the filter 'min confirmations >= 5' in improving win rates using E8 geometry timing.
Applied the filter on a backtest sample of 1271 trades.
Analyzed correlations and potential overfitting effects.
Assessed implications for trade count and profitability.
The filter leads to a marginal win rate improvement from 32.3% to 33.9%.
Projected trade count reduction of 10-15% may result in decreased overall profits.
Systematic exclusion of early entries in fast-moving trends could adversely affect net PnL.

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Implication

Rejecting the filter 'min confirmations >= 5' reveals minimal win rate improvement, indicating potential overfitting in model strategy.

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Cite This Study

Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a71993fc47350ef8e494cb8 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21754709

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Keep reading

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

1MODEL ADOPTION #1295: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.2% — E8 Intelligence ResearchOriginal Research · 2026
2MODEL ADOPTION #1015: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 33.2% — E8 Intelligence ResearchOriginal Research · 2026
3MODEL ADOPTION #1032: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 40.8% — E8 Intelligence ResearchOriginal Research · 2026
4MODEL ADOPTION #1173: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.4% — E8 Intelligence ResearchOriginal Research · 2026
5MODEL ADOPTION #1144: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 33.3% — E8 Intelligence ResearchOriginal Research · 2026

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MODEL ADOPTION #1288: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.2% — E8 Intelligence Research2026
MODEL ADOPTION #2963: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.3% to 32.9% — E8 Intelligence Research2026
MODEL ADOPTION #1143: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.7% to 41.3% — E8 Intelligence Research2026