Backtest evaluation demonstrates increased win rate but reduced overall profitability with a confirmation threshold filter in trading algorithms, highlighting risks of lag bias.
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The "min confirmations >= 6" filter is not a concrete, testable edge compatible with E8 geometry timing. It is a statistical heuristic derived from a small backtest sample (n=331) and a single live window (n=6). It does not align with the rhythm logic of Gods-Clock or the FADE polarity edge — it is a blunt count threshold, not a timing or polarity refinement. The filter would reject early entries in trending markets, which is antithetical to E8's design for capturing momentum at polarity shifts. The 72% confidence is inflated given the sample size and lack of geometric justification. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate might rise to ~40% on the filtered subset, but total trade count would drop significantly (likely >40% rejection rate), reducing gross PnL and increasing variance. The model would become less responsive, missing high-volatility regimes where speed is critical. Net profit impact is likely negative or neutral at best. RISK: The filter introduces a lag bi Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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