Forecasting Brazil's electricity consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing Techniques

After the 2001 energy crises in Brazil, the energy sector priority has been the planning and consequently the forecast middle and long term energy consumption. The Energy Research Company (EPE for short) is in charge of publishing two official reports: "The Ten Year Energy Planning" and "The National Energy Planning" which contain, among other things, the forecast for longer lead times. In the present formulation, these horizons are 2023 and 2050. This paper aims to model and forecast the Brazilian energy consumption aggregated and disaggregated by class of consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing method. In addition to the forecast with the best model in sample, an optimization procedure of the model hyperparameters is carried out in order to adjust each one of the forecasted values with the figures provided by EPE. The results obtained show that it is possible to predict satisfactorily the electricity consumption up to 2050 for all energy sectors.