Can large-scale land operation reduce the risk of returning to poverty? Evidence from rural households in China

The risk of returning to poverty poses a threat to the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy. Large-scale land operation, as a key aspect of agricultural modernization, may help reduce the risk of returning to poverty among farmers. However, there is still a lack of empirical evidence regarding the overall preventive effect on the risk of returning to poverty, the heterogeneous impact on different farmer groups, and its internal mechanism. Based on the 2020 data from the ‘China Rural Revitalization Survey’, this study employed the OLS model and the instrumental variable method to analyse how large-scale land operation affects the risk of farmers’ returning to poverty, and used the mediation effect model to test the mechanism of agricultural mechanization. Results show that: (1) Large-scale land operation can effectively reduce the risk of households’ returning to poverty. (2) This mitigating effect is significant in major grain-producing areas and is stronger for households with agricultural insurance. (3) Agricultural mechanization is the main path through which large-scale land operation reduces the risk of returning to poverty. This findings provide empirical evidence for formulating differentiated land policies, strengthening the anti-poverty function of agricultural insurance, and accelerating the promotion of agricultural mechanization.