Macroeconomic Effects of a Vat Reduction in the Italian Hotels & Restaurants Industry

The paper tests the effects on the Italian economy of a fiscal measure aimed at lowering the VAT rate from 10% to 5% in the Italian ‘Hotels and Restaurants’ sector. The analysis focuses first on the impacts in terms of tourism consumption, investments of the sector and public budget. Thereafter, by means of a multiregional–multisectoral input–output model, the increase on the total employment levels by sector and by region has been estimated. Based on a tourism demand elasticity of –1.06 and a supply elasticity of 2.0, tourist nights would increase by a maximum of 3.15% and total tourism consumption by 4.4%, while gross fixed investments by the sector would increase by 2.17%. As for the budget constraint, we have calculated the final ‘cost’ of the fiscal measure for the Treasury. Concerning the macroeconomic effects in terms of employment, the fiscal measure would produce a total increase of almost 100,000 jobs (expressed in fulltime equivalents).