The Emergence and Progression of Motor Dysfunction in Individuals at Risk of Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND: PREDICT-PD is a United Kingdom population-based study aiming to stratify individuals for future Parkinson's disease (PD) using a risk algorithm. METHODS: A randomly selected, representative sample of participants in PREDICT-PD were examined using several motor assessments, including the motor section of the Movement Disorder Society-Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS)-III, at baseline (2012) and after an average of 6 years of follow-up. We checked for new PD diagnoses in participants seen at baseline and examined the association between risk scores and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism, motor decline (increasing ≥5 points in MDS-UPDRS-III) and single motor domains in the MDS-UPDRS-III. We replicated analyses in two independent datasets (Bruneck and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative [PPMI]). RESULTS: After 6 years of follow-up, the PREDICT-PD higher-risk group (n = 33) had a greater motor decline compared with the lower-risk group (n = 95) (30% vs. 12.5%, P = 0.031). Two participants (both considered higher risk at baseline) were given a diagnosis of PD during follow-up, with motor signs emerging between 2 and 5 years before diagnosis. A meta-analysis of data from PREDICT-PD, Bruneck, and PPMI showed an association between PD risk estimates and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism (odds ratio [OR], 2.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55-2.61]), as well as new onset bradykinesia (OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.33-2.16]) and action tremor (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.30-1.98]). CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates using the PREDICT-PD algorithm were associated with the occurrence of sub-threshold parkinsonism, including bradykinesia and action tremor. The algorithm could also identify individuals whose motor examination experience a decline over time.