The Diffusion of Fertility Control in Taiwan: Evidence from Pooled Cross-Section Time-Series Models

This article assesses whether Taiwan's rapid fertility transition over the period 1960–1980 was facilitated by interpersonal diffusion. Annual data on some 361 areal units are available; these support the estimation of dynamic fixed-effect models of marital fertility. The statistical models take aim at the principal empirical prediction of diffusion hypotheses: the implication of autoregressive behaviour in fertility. We test for autoregressive effects over time within areas, and also for spatial effects whereby fertility control in one geographical area has a spillover influence on another. The Taiwanese data produce clear evidence in support of within-area diffusion. The evidence for cross-area diffusion is much weaker; there is surprisingly little suggestion of city-to-country diffusion. The estimates imply that interpersonal diffusion amplified the impact of Taiwan's family planning programme on fertility.