Predicting the composition of Canadian southern boreal forest in different fire cycles

Post‐fire succession was reconstructed for a sector located in the southern part of the Québec boreal forest. Forest composition for different periods since fire was evaluated using a stand initiation map together with ecological maps representing both site conditions and stand types. Nine fires covering at least 100 ha and representing a chronosequence of more than 230 yr were used. Although a relatively clear successional pattern from deciduous to coniferous composition relating to time‐since‐fire was observed, Pinus banksiana stands showed an erratic distribution not related to succession but possibly to the pre‐fire stand composition. A comparison with forest cover maps produced after a recent spruce budworm outbreak, showed that succession toward coniferous dominance appeared to be interrupted by spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks which, by killing Abies balsamea , lead to a mixed deciduous forest composition. A simple empirical model based on a negative exponential distribution of age classes was developed to evaluate how changes in the fire cycle would affect the composition of the forest mosaic. The transition between deciduous dominance and coniferous dominance occurs in a fire cycle > 200 yr. Although pure deciduous stands tend to disappear during long fire cycles, the proportion of mixed stands remains relatively constant. Prediction of the forest composition for longer fire cycles is complicated by the interaction between post‐fire composition and stand vulnerability to spruce budworm outbreaks.