Analysis of the current status and future invasion trends of alien invasions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in the context of climate warming

• On the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, human activities and altitude are having an increasing impact on species distribution. • By the 2090s, the optimal altitude of suitable areas shifts from low to mid-to-high altitudes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. • Under the current climate, suitable areas for invasive animals and plants cover 47.00 % and 21.20 % of the total area. • By the 2090s-SSP5-8.5, the areas suitable for invasive animals and plants will have increased by 9.96 % and 16.43 %. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, a globally critical biodiversity hotspot, faces increasing threats from climate change and human activities that raise the risk of alien species spread. However, the potential interactions of these factors, particularly in alpine zones, remain understudied. In this study, we used a species distribution model, incorporating multi-source data such as climate, altitude, and the Human Influence Index, to predict the potential distribution areas of 55 species listed in the List of State Key Managed Invasive Alien Species under current and projected climatic scenarios for the 2090 s. The results suggested that, under current climatic scenarios, invasive plants could potentially occupy 47.00 % of the Plateau, supporting the establishment of 27 species, while invasive animals might colonize 21.20 % of the area, enabling 15 species to persist. Factors related to human activities have a significant impact on model predictions, followed by those related to precipitation and temperature. Both human activities and climate variables affect species suitability. Under 2090 s-SSP5-8.5, invasive plants may occupy 57.00 % (+9.96 %) of the total area, with 29 species viable, and invasive animals may occupy 37.70 % (+16.43 %) of the total area, with 16 species viable. Our results also show that as the climate warms, the potential distribution areas are gradually expanding at mid-to-high altitudes. The optimum altitude is also likely shifting to mid-to-high altitude on the plateau, suggesting that alpine areas are increasingly at risk of invasion now and in the future. This study reveals the potential sensitivity of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to invasive alien species and provides a scientific basis for managing invasive alien species.