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While affective polarisation is seen as a defining feature of contemporary democracies, its implications for individual-level electoral behaviour remain underexplored. This article analyzes affective polarisation in Portugal between 2002 and 2024 and examines its correlation with voting behaviour, using post-electoral survey data from the Portuguese Election Study. It analyzes how contextual factors, such as the Great Recession and the entry of populist radical right parties into parliament, shaped the relationship between affective polarisation and voting behaviour. The results show moderate and stable levels of affective polarisation in Portugal, suggesting a modest influence of contextual factors on longitudinal trends. However, they also uncover a growing association between affective polarisation and electoral participation, and a positive correlation with voting for left- vs. right-wing parties.
Frederico Ferreira da Silva (Fri,) studied this question.